Melbourne Cup 2008

Melbourne Cup Form

As the richest event on the Australian racing calendar, the race that stops the nation commands the attention of thoroughbred people from across the globe. With this in mind, there are many, many variables and key pointers to consider when analysing Melbourne Cup form. Jake Norton discusses some of the important ones.

The form of participating jockeys and trainers – a traditional marker in selecting a horse which to bet around in any race – aside, there are many important things to bear in mind when pondering the Melbourne Cup form: age and sex, barrier, saddlecloth number, handicap, preparation, breeding, even the odds. All this considered, the seventy-two hours or so one has to do their Melbourne Cup form once the final field is known makes for some busy cramming!

To make this task a slightly less onerous one, here is a brief synopsis of some of the things history can tell us about the key Melbourne Cup form pointers:

AGE AND SEX

5-year-old entires and geldings have the most dominant record of any age and gender segment in Cup annals, accounting for 40 winners. However, the last of these was Doriemus in 1995 so very recent history suggests otherwise. 4yo males (entires/geldings) sit right on their heels, having won 36 Cup runnings, including the most recent instalment won by Efficient. Outside of these two prominent groups, eighteen 3yo males have won the race, just three 3yo fillies, five 4yo mares, two 5yo mares, twenty-four 6yo males, four 6yo mares, eight 7yo males, two 7yo mares, and two 8yo males. Some things to ponder when assessing this year’s Melbourne Cup form.

WINNING BARRIER

Since the runners’ barrier number was recorded for the first time in 1924, only one gate has not thrown a winner: unlucky number 18. The stall from which most Cup victors have come in that period is barrier 11 with seven, last successful in 2001 when Ethereal saluted.

SADDLECLOTH NUMBER

The ‘winningest’ saddlecloth in Cups is a mantle shared by numbers 4 and 12, with eleven champions apiece. Saddlecloth number 20 is undergoing the longest spell of ‘outs’ having not provided a winner since 1897. Yet another Melbourne Cup form vagary to consider.

WEIGHT/HANDICAP

As a rule, horses have significantly less probability of winning the Melbourne Cup when asked to carry high weights. That said, horses have carried well above 60kg – a rarity in the modern era – to win the Cup. The greatest weight-bearing effort was by the mighty Carbine, who carried the equivalent of 66kg to victory in 1890. The equally mighty Phar Lap has carried more weight than any other Cup entrant, albeit failing to bear the 68kg with success. Interestingly, just six original topweights have won the race, the last of which being Comic Court in 1950. The magnificent Makybe Diva carried a winning mares’ weight-bearing record in 2004 with 55.5kg, then made a mess of that a year later winning with 58kg.

So rest assured, with an assured big field hotly contesting the race annually, take the time to consider the pointers provided by history when doing your Melbourne Cup form!